tiistai 11. marraskuuta 2008

Pitkässä juoksussa Keynes elää ja voi hyvin

Löysin ensinnäkin elävän todisteen siitä että jollakin on vielä anglo-saksiseen suuhun sopimattomampi nimi kun minulla. Toiseksi hyvän idean.

Arvind Subramanian ja Aaditya Mattoo ehdottavat että WTO puuttuisi valuuttamanipulointiin. Eli siis siihen, että maat (esim. Kiina) pitävät valuuttansa arvoa keinotekoisen alhaalla ja aiheuttavat täten kauppataseen alijäämiä muille maille. Subramanian kirjoittaa FT.comissa :
Getting countries with persistent current account surpluses to adjust obsessed Keynes because he was acutely aware of the limited leverage that could be exerted against such countries...

Adding to the urgency of multilateral action will be US politics. If the US economy takes a downturn and the dollar continues to strengthen, a resurgence of protectionist pressures is likely. This time around, these pressures could well take the form of unilateral action against competitive currencies. It is noteworthy that President-elect Obama has actively and repeatedly supported action against “currency manipulation.”

What multilateral action can help? Keynes’ own idea for this problem was the so-called “scarce currency clause” in the IMF which envisaged trade and other actions by members against a country running persistent surpluses. It was the right idea but located in the wrong institution.

Oikea instituutio on sen sijaan WTO, koska kaupan sääntöjen kautta pystytään pakottamaan valtioita oikaisemaan valuuttapolitiikkaansa:
What is needed is a rule in the WTO proscribing undervalued exchange rates that are clearly attributable to government action. An undervalued exchange rate is in effect a combination of export subsidies and import tariffs, each of which is currently disciplined by the WTO...

This change would be consistent with the WTO’s better record on enforcement. Its dispute settlement system, although not perfect, has been reasonably effective in allowing members to initiate and settle disputes. Effectiveness, and indeed legitimacy, are related to the WTO being perceived as less asymmetric in the distribution of power between the industrial countries and emerging markets.

Niin. WTO on ystävä.

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